Greater than every other occasion, Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022 has contributed to this sense. Transcending area and language, Ukrainian nationalism at present displays a deep dedication to create an id outlined by separation from, even antipathy towards, Russia. Certainly, Mr. Putin could go down in historical past as one in every of its most essential, if unwitting, catalysts. Given his perception that Russians and Ukrainians are actually one folks, such an consequence is very ironic.
His battle has backfired not solely in Ukraine, but additionally in Europe. The European Union, spurred into motion by the invasion, summoned a united spirit in its help for Ukraine. Beforehand considerably divided in its strategy to Russia, the bloc has acted in close to unanimity – Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary being the one exception – to oppose Mr Putin’s aggression. Equally essential, Ukraine’s journey in direction of EU membership, fiercely opposed in Moscow for years, is now very a lot on monitor, though it won’t be a brief journey. An indication of progress: Together with Moldova, Ukraine formally started negotiations to hitch the bloc on the finish of final 12 months.
Then there’s NATO. Russia’s invasion was undeniably an try to stop the alliance’s japanese encroachment, which Mr Putin has lengthy seen as a menace. Within the occasion, Russia’s assault on Ukraine prompted two extra international locations, Finland and Sweden, to use for NATO membership. Neither had proven the slightest inclination to enlist earlier than the invasion, and each have first-rate armies. With their addition, Russia turns into much more enclosed, not least within the Baltic Sea and on the 830-mile land border it shares with Finland.
What’s extra, Russia’s assault prompted non-US NATO international locations to rethink their longstanding reluctance to extend navy spending. In keeping with NATO estimates, mixed annual navy spending by Canada and the alliance’s European members will rise to eight.3 p.c in 2023 from 2 p.c in 2022. This 12 months, 18 member states are reportedly set to satisfy the aim of spending 2 p.c of their gross home product on their navy – a sixfold enhance in a decade. Even in Germany, traditionally delicate to Russia’s safety pursuits and an advocate of engagement with Moscow, the temper has shifted. Its protection minister is now warning that Russia has change into a critical, rising menace.
Ukraine, after all, is eager to hitch the alliance: a nightmare state of affairs for the Kremlin. However even when this want stays unfulfilled – because it appears seemingly, at the least within the brief time period – Ukraine will proceed to look to NATO international locations for assist in coaching its troopers, equipping its armed forces and constructing trendy protection industries by signing agreements on know-how switch and joint manufacturing. Even a non-NATO Ukraine won’t be fully non-aligned resulting from its important and growing protection ties with the West.