A Ukrainian army spokesman confirmed right now that Russian troops have pushed into northern Avdiivka, a small city in southeastern Ukraine that has been on the entrance strains since 2014. Though Avdiivka is prone to fall, Russia presently has little prospect of exploiting that success. Nevertheless, that will change if Congress doesn’t go extra help to Ukraine.
Russian beneficial properties in Avdiivka
On February 4, Ukrainian conflict correspondents Yuriy Butusov and Andriy Tsaplienko reported that Russian forces had entrenched in buildings in northern Avdiivka. Tsaplienko stated the Russians had taken benefit of cloudy climate that prevented Ukrainian drone reconnaissance. The Russian troops bypassed the Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Manufacturing unit, an essential defensive fortress positioned on the northwest finish of town. They apparently purpose to dam Ukraine’s essential provide route (and solely paved street) into Avdiivka, the 00542 street, which connects to town from the northwest.
On February 5, Butusov and a usually dependable Ukrainian Telegram channel reported that Russian troops have been a couple of kilometer from the mouth of the street. As of February 7, the Russians had consolidated their positions and have been making an attempt to push deeper, based on the Ukrainian channel. In the present day, a spokesman for Ukraine’s “Tavria” operational-strategic grouping of troops, whose space of operations contains Avdiivka, confirmed that Russian forces had pushed past the homes on Adviivka’s northern outskirts and into the city itself.
Avdiivka Recap
Russia launched an operation to take Avdiivka again in October. A major mechanized power, which included items of the Central Navy District redeployed from northeastern Ukraine, tried to encompass town and minimize off its provide routes. But this effort achieved little regardless of heavy lossunder hundreds of vehicles.
Ukrainian minesartillery fireplace (together with with US-supplied cluster munitions), and first-person view (FPV) assault drones decimated the attacking Russian columns. Russian observers complained of insufficient counter battery fire and sloppy coordination between Russian items, which nowadays are largely staffed with poorly skilled folks mobilized personnel.
Ukraine relocated further forces to help Avdiivka’s defenses, incl more mechanized brigades that had participated in Kiev’s failed counter-offensive in 2023. Russia modified techniques, relying primarily on assaults by small items of dismounted infantry. Throughout months of grueling preventing, Russian troops superior on Avdiivka’s northern flank, but additionally started making an attempt to push immediately into town itself. In January, the Russians achieved a minor breakthrough on Avdiivka’s southern outskirts, though the scenario stabilized after Ukrainian counterattacks.
Now, nonetheless, Avdiivka’s downfall appears a matter of when, not if. “Whereas for a number of weeks we stated the scenario was very tough however below management, the scenario is now very tough and in some locations vital,” Avdiivka’s mayor acknowledged yesterday.
Ukraine Map of males and gear
Though Russia probably took far higher casualties at Avdiivka than Ukraine, a scarcity of infantry makes it tough for Ukrainian forces there to exchange casualties and rotate employees. Ukraine’s artillery items within the meantime, suffer from “shell starvation”, exacerbated by the suspension of US help commitments on the finish of December. Against this, Moscow has acquired a considerable amount of ammunition from North Korea, giving Russian forces a big quantitative benefit in artillery fireplace.
Ukraine’s scarcity of shells has pressured the nation to rely extra on FPV drones as a partial alternative for artillery. Russia has reportedly responded by searching down Ukrainian drone operators within the Avdiivka space and focusing on their positions with bombs and artillery.
As in Bakhmut final yr, heavy Russian artillery fireplace and bombardment steadily destroys buildings used as defensive positions, ultimately permitting Russian infantry to seize the rubble. Ukrainian sources say Russia has dropped a whole lot of guided bombs on Avdiivka in 2024 alone — greater than in all of final yr, based on Ukrainian officials. In response to Avdiivka’s mayor, Russia has additionally stepped up bombing of town’s essential provide route in current weeks, utilizing guided bombs along with FPV drones.
Most of those bombs are “dumb” munitions retrofitted with UMPK add-on kits, which flip them into guided glide bombs that may be fired from stand-off vary. The UMPK was launched final yr and has allowed Russia’s air power to play a bigger function than it may earlier within the conflict. Russia might have increased UMPK production in current months. Russia has additionally began utilizing these kits with a number of sorts of bombs, together with cluster munitions and highly effective 1500 kilos of bombs.
Implications of Avdiivka’s Fall
Russia’s advance in Avdiivka follows smaller Russian advances elsewhere on the japanese entrance in current weeks. However whereas the Russians have regained the initiative in most areas, Ukrainian forces are probably to have the ability to forestall main Russian beneficial properties so long as Washington gives Kiev with even comparatively modest quantities of army help this yr.
In idea, Moscow’s forces may make the most of Avdiivka’s fall to drive deeper into Donetsk Oblast, maybe towards town of Pokrovsk, an essential logistical hub. This could go a good distance in the direction of attaining Vladimir Putin’s objective of taking the remainder of the Donbas area.
As issues stand now, the autumn of Avdiivka would probably merely flatten the entrance line whereas offering respiration room for Russian logistics within the close by metropolis of Donetsk. Having suffered heavy casualties amongst its junior officer corps {and professional} enlisted troops, Russia’s army seems unable to mount a large-scale offensive towards a cussed Ukrainian protection. Moscow’s penchant for untimely offensives additional undermines its capability to rebuild power high quality. And regardless of its rising home shell manufacturing and provides from overseas, Russia can not replicate the crushing fireplace superiority its forces loved throughout their 2022 Donbas offensive.
If Congress doesn’t go further help, nonetheless, the following yr will look a lot darker for Ukraine.