Six swing states
America’s bizarre system of electing presidents retains getting weirder.
Friday, November 24, 2023
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Above is Taegan Goddard’s election map which is interactive on the hyperlink. Observe that this interactivity is proscribed to solely six states, as he considers the others non-competitive primarily based on polls and previous outcomes.
In latest elections, there have been a dozen or extra really aggressive seats that might lead to many alternative paths to 270 electoral votes.
That has modified lately as political polarization has elevated, leading to purple and blue strongholds with bigger margins of victory.
For instance, regardless of the slim margin of the vote in 2016 — see the 2016 electoral map — greater than two dozen states had been determined by margins of 15 share factors or extra.
In 1988, when the favored vote margin was seven share factors, solely 17 states had been gained by such massive margins.
It is also notable that 1988 was the final election by which California, lengthy a Republican “lock” (together with 5 occasions for native sons Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan), voted GOP.
I have been taking part in with the map a bit and began by giving the GOP (presumably Trump) Arizona and Georgia and giving the Dems (presumably Biden) Nevada, assuming a return to the norm. That places it at a Republican 262, Democrat 231, Toss Up 45. Which suggests Biden must run the desk in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. If Trump wins any of them, he’s president.