On Tuesday evening, voters in a handful of key states gave us a vital temperature test on the state of the union main as much as the 2024 presidential election — and it is not excellent news for Republicans.
In Virginia, wildly well-liked Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin hoped his celebration would win management of the legislature — “maintain the Home, flip the Senate,” as he has chanted at rallies — however it was to not be. Democrats stored the Senate, delivering a powerful message that they might proceed to be a test on his and Republican powers.
In Kentucky, Democrat Andy Beshear gained a second time period as governor in a state that former President Donald Trump carried by greater than 25 factors in 2020. He defeated a Trump-endorsed Republican, Daniel Cameron, who some have advised could possibly be on a nationwide ticket a day. Seems to be prefer it should wait.
And in Ohio, one other crimson state that voted twice for Trump, voters determined to put in writing abortion rights into the state structure, dealing one other blow to Republicans hoping to eradicate entry to abortion.
Abortion is what ties all these outcomes collectively. It was each figuratively and actually on the poll this off-election 12 months, seemingly driving voters to the polls the identical manner it did within the 2022 midterms.
The People could not be extra declarative on this problem in the event that they tried. The truth is, I’ve written a number of variations of this column over the previous few years. the essence? When will Republicans get the message on abortion?
Nicely, not this week, it seems.
Again in August, Ohio voters gave their first indication that they did not like Republicans’ hostile takeover of their rights after they voted towards Query 1, which might have made it tougher to alter the state structure. This week they sealed the deal.
It adopted one other decisive victory for abortion rights in Kansas, additionally a crimson state, in 2022, when it voted to protect abortion as a constitutionally protected proper and prohibit the state from prosecuting individuals concerned in abortions. The Republican-led modification was defeated by an 18-point margin.
In Kentucky, Cameron, the lawyer basic, boasted on his official web site that “on the identical day that the Dobbs ruling” overturned Roe v. Wade, his “decisive actions led to Kentucky’s two abortion clinics instantly closing their doorways.” Beshear, who campaigned so as to add exceptions to the state’s efficient abortion ban, gained a second time period.
In Virginia, Youngkin had hoped to sway the state senate to move a 15-week abortion ban, with exceptions for rape, incest and the mom’s well being. He had hammered out what he referred to as a “cheap” proposal on the marketing campaign path, hoping to melt the far-right’s excessive messages on abortion.
However on Tuesday, voters rejected Youngkin’s effort.
It seems it is exhausting to place the toothpaste again within the tube when Republicans all over the place have cracked down on abortion rights and entry within the wake of Dobbs. It could be particularly troublesome to “soften” messages when Republicans have proposed barbaric, regressive and punitive concepts like imprisonment – and even homicide! – ladies who’ve an abortion. Someway, that is not a successful concept for Republicans—think about that.
All of this was utterly predictable. As I’ve famous time and time once more, attitudes towards abortion in America have remained agency and secure since Roe made it authorized.
Since 1976, the primary 12 months Gallup started surveying the problem, a majority of People have at all times believed that abortion must be authorized with some restrictions. A minority has at all times thought it must be authorized in any case, and an excellent smaller minority has at all times thought it must be unlawful in any case.
Regardless of years of pro-life activism, indignant and typically even violent protests outdoors abortion clinics, Trump’s blatant pandering to the evangelical neighborhood, and the eventual overturning of fifty years of settled regulation, attitudes towards abortion haven’t modified. If something, voters have turn into extra pro-choice.
Republicans to date appear content material to die on this hill, and they’re dying. In 2020, 2022 and this election cycle, abortion has managed to save lots of Democrats from rising crime, a border disaster and a slowing financial system in methods Republicans refuse to acknowledge.
However the math will not be math, as the children say. Excessive abortion legal guidelines which are manner outdoors the mainstream — keep in mind, a majority need it authorized, however with some restrictions — time and time once more show to be a loser for the GOP.
Will Republicans experience their abortion ban into the sundown in 2024 and hope that after practically 50 years of stasis, the voters will immediately magically change their minds?
Most likely. In any case, doubling down on unhealthy concepts — like Trump — has turn into a favourite pastime for the GOP. However on this one, they may accomplish that at their very own danger.
SE Cupp hosts “SE Cupp Unfiltered” on CNN.