ISLANDne hundred years after the Arab Revolt (1916-1918) towards the ruling Ottoman Turks amid the upcoming defeat of Germany and the Triple Alliance within the First World Struggle, one other armed rebellion by the Arabs has damaged out.
This time it’s towards Israeli occupation, towards the background of the looming defeat of the USA and NATO within the Ukraine battle – and presents a spectacle of historical past repeating itself unabridged.
The Ottoman Empire disintegrated because of the Arab Revolt. Israel too must depart its occupied territories and make manner for a state of Palestine, which in fact might be a crushing defeat for the US and mark the tip of its international dominance. It’s harking back to the Battle of Cambrai in Northern France (1918), the place the Germans – surrounded, exhausted and with deteriorating morale within the midst of a worsening home state of affairs – confronted the understanding that the battle was misplaced and surrendered.
The flurry of occasions over the previous week and a half has been breathtaking, starting with a cellphone name made by Iranian President Sayyid Ebrahim Raisi to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on October 11 to debate a joint technique to take care of the state of affairs after the state of affairs. devastating assault by the Islamic resistance motion, Hamas, towards Israel 4 days earlier than.
Simply earlier than that, Iran’s Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei burdened in a robust assertion that:
“From the army and intelligence facets, this defeat (of Hamas) is irreparable. It’s a devastating earthquake. It’s unlikely that the (Israeli) usurping regime will be capable of use the assistance of the West to restore the deep results that this incident has left its mark on its governing constructions.”
(See my weblog, Iran Warns Israel of Its Apocalyptic Struggle.)
A senior Iranian official advised Reuters that Raisi’s name to the crown prince was geared toward “supporting Palestine and stopping the unfold of battle within the area. The decision was good and promising.”
After making a broad understanding with Saudi Arabia, Iranian International Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian held dialogue together with his Emirati counterpart, Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed, throughout which he referred to as on Islamic and Arab nations to increase their assist to the Palestinian folks, stressing that the state of affairs is pressing.
Additionally late final week, Amir-Abdollahian launched into a regional journey to Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Qatar for a couple of days to coordinate with the varied resistance teams. Particularly, he met Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut and Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Doha.
Amir-Abdollahian advised the media that except Israel stops its barbaric airstrikes on Gaza, an escalation from the resistance motion is inevitable and Israel may endure a “large earthquake” as Hezbollah is in a state of readiness to intervene.
In the meantime, Tehran has delivered a powerful message to Tel Aviv through the United Nations that it must intervene if Israeli aggression towards Gaza continues, Axios reported final weekend, citing two diplomatic sources.
In brief, Tehran won’t be deterred by the deployment of two US plane carriers and a number of other warships and fighter jets off Israel’s shores.
Final weekend, on Sunday, White Home Nationwide Safety Advisor Jake Sullivan acknowledged that the USA couldn’t rule out Iran intervening within the battle.
In the meantime, whereas Iran coordinated with the resistance teams on the army entrance, China and Saudi Arabia shifted gears on the diplomatic monitor.
On October 12, as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken headed to Arab capitals after talks in Tel Aviv to hunt assist in getting the hostages launched by Hamas, China’s particular envoy to the Center East Zhai Jun contacted the Saudi deputy minister for political affairs. , Saud M. Al-Sati, on the Palestine-Israel state of affairs, notably the humanitarian disaster unfolding in Gaza.
The distinction couldn’t be sharper.
On the identical day, a unprecedented occasion befell on the Chinese language International Ministry when the Arab envoys in Beijing sought a bunch assembly with Particular Envoy Zhai Jun to emphasise their collective place {that a} “very critical” humanitarian disaster has emerged following Israel’s assault on Gaza and “the worldwide neighborhood has the accountability to take quick measures to ease rigidity, promote the resumption of peace negotiations, and defend the respectable nationwide rights of the Palestinian folks.”
The Arab ambassadors thanked China “for sustaining a good stance on the Palestinian situation … and expressed hope that China will proceed to play a optimistic and constructive function.”
Zhai expressed full understanding that “the highest precedence is to take care of calm and train restraint, defend civilians and supply the required circumstances to alleviate the humanitarian disaster.”
After this extraordinary assembly, the Chinese language Ministry of International Affairs printed on its web site at midnight a press release by International Minister Wang Yi entitled “China stands on the aspect of peace and human conscience on the problem of Palestine.” This reportedly led to Saudi International Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan calling Wang Yi.
Apparently, Blinken additionally referred to as Wang Yi from Riyadh on October 14, the place, in response to the State Division readout, he “reiterated American assist for Israel’s proper to defend itself and referred to as for a direct halt to Hamas assaults and the discharge of all hostages.” and emphasised the significance of “deterring different events (learn Iran and Hezbollah) from coming into the battle.”
In brief, in all of those exchanges involving Saudi Arabia – particularly in Blinken’s conferences in Riyadh with Saudi International Minister and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, whereas the US centered on the hostage situation, the Saudi aspect turned its consideration to the humanitarian disaster in Gaza.
Readings from the Ministry of International Affairs (right here and right here) present the divergent priorities of the 2 sides.
A coordinated Saudi-Iranian technique supported by China is placing strain on Israel to comply with a ceasefire and de-escalation. UN assist additional isolates Israel.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s exit is predicted, however he won’t throw within the towel with out a battle. Relations between the US and Israel could come below strain.
Biden is caught in a bind, harkening again to Jimmy Carter’s predicament over the 1980 Iran hostage disaster that ended his bid for a second time period as president. Biden is already on his manner again.
The place do issues go from right here? It’s clear that the longer the Israeli assault on Gaza continues, the worldwide condemnation and calls for to permit a humanitarian hall will solely intensify. Not solely will nations like India that expressed “solidarity” with Israel lose face within the World South, even Washington’s European allies might be exhausting pressed. It stays to be seen whether or not an invasion of Gaza by Israel is much more life like.
Going ahead, the Arab-Iran-China axis will increase Gaza’s plight within the UN Safety Council. [On Wednesday the U.S. vetoed a draft resolution calling for a humanitarian ceasefire. A Russian proposed a draft resolution failed on Monday.]
In the meantime, the US challenge to revive the Abraham Accords is shedding traction and the plan to undermine the China-brokered Saudi-Iranian rapprochement faces sudden loss of life.
As for the ability dynamics in West Asia, these traits can solely work in favor of Russia and China, particularly if in some unspecified time in the future the BRICS had been to take a number one function in navigating a Center East peace course of that’s not the monopoly of the U.S. That is payback time for Russia .
The period of the petrodollar is coming to an finish – and with it US international hegemony. The brand new traits subsequently go a protracted approach to strengthening multipolarity on the earth order.
