Indonesia’s 2024 presidential election was atypical amongst post-New Order presidential elections in that it featured three presidential candidates, however the outcomes have been determined in just one spherical. In each presidential election since 2004, there was both a runoff between the highest two candidates within the first spherical, or there have been solely two candidates. In 2024, three tickets – Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka, Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar and Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD – every ran campaigns and appeared on presidential ballots. Aided by the wildly in style incumbent President Joko Widodo’s sturdy assist, Prabowo Subianto gained the election.
I like making maps of Indonesian election outcomes. These are best when there are solely two candidates as a result of sturdy outcomes for one result in weak outcomes for others. It is more durable to plot with three candidates! However it may be executed: beneath is a ternary plot created utilizing tricolore
pack in R
.*
![](https://tompepinsky.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/map_prabowo2024.png?w=1024)
As you’ll be able to see, some observations are lacking, particularly in Papua, the place knowledge just isn’t dependable. However nonetheless, this determine conveys 4 vital items of data.
- Prabowo (the blue areas) did very effectively nearly all over the place.
- The place Prabowo fared much less effectively, he largely cut up his vote equally between Ganjar and Anies. Anies dominated some districts; Ganjar dominated no districts.
- Anies’ greatest show was in Aceh and elements of Jambi and West Sumatra.
- Ganjar solely did effectively in elements of Java, however even right here he shared his votes with Prabowo and Anies.
Zooming in on Java helps this final level develop into obvious.
![](https://tompepinsky.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/map_prabowo2024_java.png?w=1024)
The determine corresponds fairly effectively to my understanding of the leads to Java. Prabowo did extraordinarily effectively round Jakarta, Surabaya and in giant elements of East Java. In Central Java, Prabowo cut up the vote with Ganjar. In West Java, Banten and Madura, Prabowo shared the vote with Anies. Watch this house for extra interpretations.
NOTES
* See Scholey J, Kashnitsky I (2024). “tricolore. A versatile shade scale for ternary compositions.” CRANE. Model 1.2.4, https://cran.r-project.org/bundle=tricolore; and Scholey J (2021). “The centered ternary steadiness scheme. A way for visualizing surfaces of unbalanced ternary compositions.” Demographic analysis, 44, 443–458. doi:10.4054/DemRes.2021.44.19.