Pretend Nikki Haley Boomlet Continues
The media’s favourite Republican is doing higher in some polls than the opposite candidates dropping to Trump.
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Monday 18 December 2023
· 11 feedback
![](https://otb.cachefly.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/nikki-haley-flag.jpeg)
CBS Information launched a brand new ballot final night time below the headline “Haley wins over Trump in New Hampshire, whereas he continues to dominate in Iowa.”
Donald Trump nonetheless leads in New Hampshire, however Nikki Haley has consolidated a big portion of the non-Trump vote and has emerged as the perfect different to him there. Among the many high candidates, Haley will get the perfect marks for being perceived as “pleasant” and “cheap,” and she or he runs practically tied with Trump for being “ready” — exceptional provided that he held the presidency. She has partially run for electability and is now seen as probably the most electable of Trump’s challengers.
In the meantime, Trump has consolidated his already commanding lead in Iowa, the place possible caucus goers overwhelmingly see him as a “robust chief,” the place his backers say he “represents Iowa values” and the place he’s getting a lift from an voters the place virtually half say they’re a part of the MAGA motion.
Haley has gotten a lift from New Hampshire’s extra average voters in comparison with Iowa. She has made inroads amongst self-described moderates and independents, and is working near Trump amongst them now. (Independents can, and infrequently do, vote in GOP primaries.) And it is these teams that, in precept, categorical extra openness to a candidate who would not seem like Trump if he isn’t the nominee.
Requested to match the candidates to the front-runner, voters see Haley as probably the most totally different candidate from Trump when it comes to persona. And about seven in 10 say that if the nominee is just not Trump, they would favor a candidate apart from him when it comes to persona.
Which is bloated. Till you see the precise numbers:
![](https://otb.cachefly.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/cbs-new-hampshire-20231218.png)
![](https://otb.cachefly.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/cbs-iowa-20231218.png)
So . . . Trump stays the insurmountable favourite in each races. If the opposite “common Republicans” within the ballot, Chris Christie and Asa Hutchinson, dropped out and all their assist went to Haley, she would nonetheless be down by 4 factors in New Hampshire. And in a distant third in Iowa.
There may be nonetheless no viable path to the nomination of Haley if Trump is within the race. And even with Trump out of the race, we would assume the lion’s share of his supporters would change to DeSantis and Ramaswamy, not Haley.
Actually, the one factor actually fascinating right here is the wild divergence in how the residents of Iowa and New Hampshire rank the candidates. Presumably the questions and voting technique had been the identical. Nonetheless, 84% in Iowa desire a MAGA candidate, whereas solely 60% do in New Hampshire.